🎲
Monte Carlo Retirement Calculator
Run simplified probability analysis on your retirement portfolio survival.
About This Calculator
Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random return sequences to estimate the probability a portfolio survives retirement. Vanguard and Fidelity both use similar methods internally — a 90%+ success rate at a given withdrawal rate is typically considered comfortable. The 4% rule shows roughly 87%–95% success in most Monte Carlo models using historical equity/bond return parameters.