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Sequence of Returns Risk Calculator
See how poor early returns devastate a retirement portfolio versus good early returns.
About This Calculator
Two portfolios with identical average returns but different timing can have radically different outcomes. Wade Pfau's research shows that retiring in 1966 (poor sequence) with a 4% withdrawal rate depleted portfolios by 1997, while retiring in 1975 (good sequence) with the same withdrawal left massive surpluses. The first decade of retirement largely determines success — leading retirees to reduce equity exposure early.